Friday Nutstuff: From War Trades to Peace Dividends
How a Ceasefire in Ukraine, the Decline of U.S. Hegemony, and the Rise of Regional Power Shifts Are Reshaping the Investment Playbook
👉 Read on. Think smarter. Laugh harder. Maybe even profit.
Truth time – minus the sugarcoat. Peace might be back on the menu. Washington’s pushing a 30-day Russia–Ukraine ceasefire. No Crimea chatter. No Zaporizhzhia dramas. Just enough frost to keep markets cool through Q4.
We’ve seen this coming. Our Positioning for Peace basket (VEON, YANDEX, RWE, WIZZ, Avio, Polish breweries – yes, really) is loaded for this thaw. War premium melts. Bombed-out names rise. Simple.
Meanwhile, capital’s bailing on the Stars & Stripes. Endowments are quietly ghosting U.S. assets. MAGA isolationism plus a blinkless Beijing? Welcome to Multipolar World™ – population: your money.
Digital assets? They’re not the hedge, they’re the lead dog. AI infra tokens up +150% in 30 days. Bitcoin is back to clowning Buffett. Again.
But AI infra? Looking bloated. Too many datacenters, not enough demand. Corrections are coming. META wins either way – cashing ad cheques from 3.43bn dopamine junkies and outselling Apple with those Ray-Ban glasses. Not a gimmick. A revolution.
AMAZON? Looks like a tech stock, spends like a charity. Peel off the stock comp and it’s fumes and vibes. As overpriced as Tesla’s non-auto fantasy.
Oil? Still hated. Still cheap. Shut U.S. production for a month and we’re sprinting back to $80. No one believes it – that’s why it’s true.
Oh, and Reform UK? Flying. Immigration fatigue is real. Populism with polish or without – it’s moving the needle. Markets haven’t priced it. Yet.
💡 Highlights:
🕊️ Russia–Ukraine Peace Talks: A potential U.S.-mediated ceasefire could shift geopolitical tensions and stabilize markets. A 30-day ceasefire proposal, driven by Washington, excludes thorny issues like Crimea and aims for a negotiation freeze. Marco Rubio's involvement signals bipartisan U.S. coordination.
📈 Positioning for Peace Portfolio: Includes VEON, Yandex, RWE, BASF, Austrian banks, Wizz Air, and now Avio—companies likely to benefit from geopolitical stability. The Nutstuff Portfolio’s “Positioning for Peace” theme features plays like VEON, Yandex, RWE, and European infrastructure firms poised to rally if the peace holds.
🪙 Bitcoin & AI Tokens: Crypto outperformance remains thematic; Bitcoin vs gold revaluation trade floats as speculative scenario. Digital Assets outperforming Benchmarks Gold and crypto, especially Bitcoin, are outperforming in volatile markets. Digital AI infrastructure tokens surged 150% in 30 days.
💹 Jacques +256% YTD: His performance underscores the value of rational, focused macro thinking during volatile times. U.S. Cannot Replace Imports. Domestic reshoring is unrealistic; high-wage U.S. service labor isn’t switching to factories. Trump’s policies prioritize populist narratives over sound economics.
🇺🇸 U.S. Tariff Politics: Trump’s economic policies are seen as performative, ignoring macroeconomic realities and NAIRU constraints.
🛢️ Oil Sentiment: Market hates oil irrationally, despite its essential demand. Short squeeze is inevitable when supply tightens.
🛰️ Avio Equity Buy: European rocket and defense firm Avio seen as undervalued with strategic upside in European rearmament. A €500m space/defense firm, cheap valuation, strong backlog, and European defense upside. 30% owned by Leonardo.
Image Source: www.italiandefencetechnologies.com 🏦 China Trade Policy: Beijing remains firm on not blinking first in the U.S. trade standoff, with minimal near-term catalyst for China equities. Tariffs Are Self-Defeating. China won’t blink first. U.S. leverage is overstated. Delisting Chinese ADRs would be a major buying opportunity for European investors.
Image Source: https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg
📱 META Glasses as AI Interface: Zuck’s smart glasses might be the iPhone-killer in AI accessibility. MAUs 4x YoY. Big Tech Divergence META seen as a strong founder-led play; MSFT, AAPL viewed as bloated. AI data center overbuild risk flagged.
🌿 Cannabis Opportunity: GLASF US viewed as a $30-70 stock if U.S. legislation changes. Valuations remain cheap in taboo sectors.
🇪🇺 Europe Gaining Market Share vs U.S. Nutstuff believes that if 8/10 major sectors were better in U.S. stocks 18 months ago, it’s now closer to 6/10 or fewer—EU equity weightings to rise.
🇬🇧 UK Politics: Reform Party Surge
Reform UK gaining rapid traction amid discontent over immigration, reshaping political dynamics ahead of general elections.
Image Source: www.aljazeera.com No Nonsense, Just Common Sense, Stock Ideas & Conclusions
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